According to the 33rd annual American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) Thanksgiving dinner survey, a traditional Thanksgiving meal has become more affordable, reaching its lowest price point since 2010.
Late last week, the AFBF announced findings showing that feeding 10 people a traditional Thanksgiving dinner costs an average of $48.90 nationwide—roughly $5 per person or less. This represents a 22-cent drop from the previous year’s $49.12, making it the most economical year since 2010. When adjusted for inflation, this year’s meal comes to just $19.37, the cheapest it has been in over a decade.
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For the survey, 166 volunteer shoppers across 37 states gathered price information from grocery stores. These volunteers were instructed to find the best available prices while avoiding special promotions, coupons, or bundled deals like free turkeys with minimum purchases. Consumers looking for comparable bargains nationwide should find individual items priced similarly to the survey’s averages.
The survey’s shopping list encompasses turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, buttered rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, pumpkin pie with whipped cream, and coffee and milk—all in quantities adequate for a family of 10 with leftovers.
The primary factor behind declining costs is turkey, the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving tables. AFBF research indicates retail turkey prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2014, driven by plentiful supply. A 16-pound turkey averaged $21.71 this year, representing a 3 percent decrease per pound compared to last year.
“Since 2015, the average cost of Thanksgiving dinner has declined steadily and is now at the lowest level since 2010,” said AFBF Chief Economist Dr. John Newton.
Beyond turkey, numerous items showed significant price reductions:
- Gallon of milk, $2.92;
- 3-pound bag of sweet potatoes, $3.39;
- one-pound bag of green peas, $1.47;
- one dozen rolls, $2.25.
Conversely, certain products experienced price increases. Notable among these is the cranberry—Massachusetts’ signature Thanksgiving ingredient—along with pumpkin pie mix and cubed bread stuffing.
The following items cost more than in previous years:
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries was $2.65;
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix was $3.33;
- 14-ounce package of cubed bread stuffing was $2.87;
- two nine-inch pie shells came in at $2.47;
- one-pound veggie tray was $.75.
A collection of miscellaneous items—coffee and cooking ingredients such as butter, evaporated milk, onions, eggs, sugar and flour—edged upward to $3.01. Whipping cream, at a half-pint for $2.08, remained unchanged.
“Thanks to an ample supply, turkey remains affordable for consumers, which helps keep the overall cost of the dinner reasonably priced as well,” Newton said.
The AFBF expanded its analysis to include alternative meal compositions. Adding a four-pound bone-in ham, five pounds of Russet potatoes, and one pound of frozen green beans increased the per-person cost by approximately $1.
The survey also examined pricing through food delivery services, revealing a significant markup for convenience. Turkeys purchased this way cost nearly 50 percent more at approximately $2 per pound, with virtually every component priced higher than grocery store alternatives. The total meal cost from delivery services was roughly 60 percent higher, totaling about $8 per person.
“Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost slightly, to $61.72 or about $6 per person,” said Newton.
Since its inception in 1986, the AFBF Thanksgiving dinner survey has maintained the same menu to enable consistent year-to-year comparisons. While AFBF makes no scientific claims regarding the data, it serves as an informal indicator of national price trends.